On-chain whale intelligence
Whales don't announce their trades. The blockchain does.
whyonchain indexes Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum and Solana, tracks the top-100 holders of every token, and compresses 16 on-chain metrics into one score: accumulation or distribution.
We reply on X (ex. twitter) within 24 hours.
| Token | Score | Signal | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUPSOL | 82 | Accumulation | +5.8% | |
| ARBARB | 74 | Accumulation | +2.4% | |
| ARKMETH | 61 | Neutral | -1.1% | |
| PENDLEETH | 57 | Neutral | +0.6% |
Illustrative data
- 4 chains
- 16 metrics
- top-100 whales per token
- live prices
- daily on-chain refresh
The problem
By the time you see the candle, the decision was already made.
Influencers post their calls after they've entered.
You're not following a signal — you're providing exit liquidity. whyonchain reads the top-100 wallets directly from the chain: you watch what whales do, not what they say.
The major platforms don't cover your mid-caps.
Deep on-chain metrics exist for BTC and ETH — not for the tokens you actually trade. We index mid-caps like ARB and ARKM with full depth: cost basis, netflows, whale cohorts.
“AI signals” never show an out-of-sample track record.
Ours has to earn the right to speak. A model that fails walk-forward validation is switched off automatically — and the OFF status is shown in the product.
How it works
From raw transfers to one number.
01
Index the chain
ERC-20 and SPL transfers, daily prices, address labels (exchanges, DEXes, lending) — millions of transactions in our own database, not a repackaged dashboard.
02
Compute 16 metrics
Exchange netflow, NVT, dormancy, SOPR, DEX flow — plus the whale set: whale netflow, Gini concentration, cohort NUPL/MVRV-Z, cost basis.
03
Score against history
Robust z-scores (median/MAD), Bayesian shrinkage toward 50 on short histories, weights calibrated on information coefficient with FDR correction.
04
Get conviction + alerts
One composite score per token, a conviction ranking across all tokens, Telegram/Discord alerts when whales move.
Whale watch
Know their entry price. Watch their exit.
We take a token's top-100 addresses by balance and remove exchanges, smart contracts and bridges. What's left are real private holders — and for each one we reconstruct cost basis, unrealized PnL and every large move from raw transfers.
So instead of another chart, you get a sentence:
“Whales entered at an average of $0.42. They're sitting on +180% unrealized. And this week, they started moving tokens to exchanges.”
On top of the registry we compute NUPL and MVRV-Z for the whale cohort specifically — not the whole network.
| Address | Balance | EntryCost basis | uPnL | Last move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1a2b…9f4c | 12.4M | $0.42 | +180% | → Binance · 2h ago |
| 0x7f3e…a2d1 | 9.8M | $0.38 | +209% | accumulating |
| 0x93c4…e7b0 | 7.1M | $0.55 | +114% | dormant · 21d |
| 0xb52a…c8f3 | 6.6M | $0.47 | +150% | → Binance · 2d ago |
| 0x2d9f…41aa | 5.9M | $0.61 | +93% | ← withdrew 900K |
Illustrative data
Cost basis per whale
The average entry price of every top-100 holder, reconstructed from raw transfers.
Cohort NUPL & MVRV-Z
How overheated the whales are — not the whole network.
Exchange-deposit alerts
A top-100 holder sends size to an exchange; you know the same day.
Methodology
Honest scoring. And an ML model that knows when to shut up.
- Every metric is scored 0–100 against the token's own history — robust z-scores by median/MAD, Bayesian shrinkage toward neutral 50 on short histories.
- No look-ahead, anywhere. The score for day X uses only data strictly before X — in the product and in every backtest.
- Walk-forward validation with purge and embargo: models train on the past, predict the future, never peek.
- A model without proven out-of-sample signal is not allowed near you. It's gated off — visibly.
- All statistics ship corrected: p-values, FDR for multiple comparisons, ADF stationarity tests, small-sample-adjusted Hurst.
- The platform watches its own pipelines. If a source silently goes stale, the admin is warned — a green status never hides rotten data.
Illustrative data
If our model is no better than a coin flip — you'll be the first to see it. That's what a tool looks like, as opposed to a casino.
Composite signal
One number. Four inputs. Every contribution visible.
On top of the metrics sits a composite signal: it fuses on-chain conviction, news tone, TVL momentum and funding (contrarian) into a single explainable score — with the contribution of each input broken out, not hidden inside a black box.
It gets no special treatment. The composite is logged daily and validated with the same honest apparatus as every other score: information coefficient, decile spreads and hit-rate against forward returns.
Funding enters with a contrarian sign: a crowded long isn't a reason to join — it's a risk to price in.
- On-chain conviction+32
- TVL momentum+14
- News tone+9
- Funding (contrarian)−6
logged daily · validated: IC · deciles · hit-rate
Illustrative data
Backtests
Backtest it yourself.
Every score can be run through history right in the product: a long/cash strategy on score thresholds, with hysteresis and fees, against buy-and-hold. If the signal doesn't hold up, you'll see it in the equity curve — not in a testimonial.
Illustrative data
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Track record
Not a promise. A logged simulation.
For every signal — overall, conviction, composite — the product runs an honest long-only simulation: daily rebalance into the top-ranked fraction, fees included, no look-ahead. The equity curve sits next to two benchmarks: holding BTC/ETH and an equal-weight universe. If the signal has no edge, the chart says so before we do.
Illustrative data
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Beyond on-chain
The chain is half the picture. Here's the rest.
Derivatives & squeeze
Funding, open interest and long/short history per perp (Binance) — with a verdict: long-squeeze risk or short-squeeze setup. Hidden when a token has no perp.
Unlock calendar
DeFiLlama emissions: next unlock date, % of supply, 7/30-day pressure. A large unlock coming up gets highlighted — and alerted.
Live prices
Binance WebSocket streams prices, changes and position values into the dashboard, token pages and screener — not just the daily batch.
Macro context
Fear & Greed, BTC/ETH dominance and stablecoin flow: is fresh capital entering crypto — or leaving it?
Your holdings
Enter positions manually or link a wallet read-only — balances only, no keys, no transactions. Live value, P&L, weight, signal exposure. Alerts route to what you own.
Briefs & digests
A morning brief and a weekly digest in Telegram: Fear & Greed, BTC dominance, stablecoin flow, top composite scores and daily movers.
Illustrative data
Alerts
When whales move, your phone knows.
Score spike
An EWMA control chart catches sharp deviations from the recent regime.
Regime shift
CUSUM flags a sustained change in trend, not one-day noise.
Whale exchange deposit
A top-100 holder sends size to an exchange; the alert fires the same day.
Composite reversal
The composite signal flips direction on a token you track — you hear about it instead of scrolling past it.
With cooldowns — we respect your notifications. Delivered to Telegram and Discord, alongside a morning brief and a weekly digest.
whyonchain alerts
Telegram · bot
Illustrative data
Comparison
Different tools for different jobs.
Glassnode and Nansen are good at what they do. whyonchain is built for what they don't.
Mid-cap coverage (ARB, ARKM, …)
- whyonchain
- deep
- Glassnode
- majors only
- Nansen
- partial
- Free dashboards
- if someone wrote the query
Whale cost basis + PnL per token
- whyonchain
- Glassnode
- —
- Nansen
- —
- Free dashboards
- —
Composite scoring, calibrated weights
- whyonchain
- Glassnode
- —
- Nansen
- —
- Free dashboards
- —
Backtest your signal in-product
- whyonchain
- Glassnode
- —
- Nansen
- —
- Free dashboards
- —
ML honesty gates (visible OFF status)
- whyonchain
- Glassnode
- —
- Nansen
- —
- Free dashboards
- —
Price
- whyonchain
- $15–29/mo
- Glassnode
- $$$
- Nansen
- $$$$
- Free dashboards
- free, raw
Pricing
One plan. Three ways to pay.
Everything in every plan
- Screener + all 16 metrics
- Whale Watch: cost basis & PnL
- Composite signal & track record
- Backtests & portfolio tools
- Derivatives, unlocks & live prices
- Telegram & Discord alerts + digests
- All supported tokens + additions on request
Seats are limited — access is granted manually so the signal doesn't get crowded out. Cancel anytime.
FAQ
Questions traders actually ask.
Is this financial advice?
No. whyonchain is an analytics tool: it shows what's happening on-chain and how statistically unusual it is. Decisions — and research — are yours.
Which chains and tokens are covered?
Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum and Solana. The screener covers all tracked tokens, with particular depth on mid-caps the major platforms skip.
Can you add my token?
Yes, on request. Data and scores refresh automatically every day.
How is this different from Nansen or Glassnode?
Not better — deeper where they don't look: mid-caps, per-token whale cost basis and PnL, validated composite scoring, in-product backtests. And at $15–29/mo instead of hundreds.
Where does the data come from?
Our own indexing: ERC-20/SPL transfers, daily prices and address labels in our own database — millions of transactions, not a retelling of someone else's dashboard.
What if the ML model stops working?
The gate switches it off and you see the OFF status in the product. A model without proven out-of-sample signal is never shown as active. We think that's a feature.
What do alerts look like?
Short messages in Telegram or Discord: what happened, which metric fired, how the score changed. With cooldowns, so the same event doesn't ping you twice.
How do I subscribe?
Request access → we reply on X (ex. twitter) within 24 hours → account is created manually → payment. No self-serve signup; access stays small on purpose.
Is there a trial?
No trial. Instead — mockups of real screens above and a detailed methodology: you know exactly what you're buying.
Do I have to connect a wallet?
No. You can enter holdings manually. If you do link one, it's read-only: we read token balances for your universe — no keys, no signatures, no transactions.
How is my account secured?
Passwords hashed with argon2. Sessions are opaque tokens — only a hash is stored server-side. The frontend never talks to the API directly (BFF pattern, httpOnly cookies).
See the token the way its whales see it.
whyonchain won't predict the price, and won't pretend to. It shows what the largest holders are actually doing — entry price, PnL, exchange flows, statistical context — and pings you when their behavior changes. Access is granted manually and kept small, so the signal stays a signal.
We reply on X (ex. twitter) within 24 hours.